Our research aims to use mathematical modelling to better understand transmission dynamics of infectious diseases and inform control efforts.

Ongoing research projects include:

• Global mpox outbreaks (clade IIb, clade Ib)
• Seasonal influenza
• Respiratory syncytial virus
• Respiratory infections within schools and households
• Vaccine decision making
• Social and sexual contact behaviours
• Branching process models

2025-07-01: Our work on international mpox importations across Asian countries, spearheaded by Toshi, is out in WHO Bulletin!

2025-02-04: Our team now has an official profile here!

1. Asakura TR, Jung S-m, Murayama H, Ghaznavi C, Sakamoto H, Teshima A, Miura F, Endo A*. Modelling international spread of clade IIb mpox on the Asian continent. Bull World Health Organ. 2025;103(7):429-436. doi:10.2471/BLT.24.291815
2. Asakura TR, Jung S-m, Jin S, Hu G, Endo A, Dickens BL. Characterising global risk profiles of Mpox clade Ib importation. J Travel Med. 2024;taae136. doi:10.1093/jtm/taae136
3. Jung S-m, Miura F, Murayama H, Funk S, Wallinga J, Lessler J, Endo A. Dynamic landscape of mpox importation risks driven by heavy-tailed sexual contact networks among men who have sex with men in 2022. J Infect Dis. 2024;jiae433. doi:10.1093/infdis/jiae433
4. Murayama H, Pearson CAB, Abbott S, Miura F, Jung S-m, Fearon E, Funk S, Endo A*. Accumulation of immunity in heavy-tailed sexual contact networks shapes monkeypox outbreak sizes. J Infect Dis. 2023;jiad254. doi:10.1093/infdis/jiad254
5. Murayama H, Endo A, Yonekura S. Estimation of waning vaccine effectiveness from population-level surveillance data in multi-variant epidemics. Epidemics. 2023;45:100726. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100726
6. Endo A, Murayama H, Abbott S, Ratnayake R, Pearson CAB, Edmunds WJ, Fearon E, Funk S. Heavy-tailed sexual contact networks and the epidemiology of monkeypox outbreak in the global outbreak, 2022. Science. 2022:eadd4507. doi:10.1126/science.add4507
7. Endo A; CMMID COVID-19 Working Group, Uchida M, Liu Y, Atkins KE, Kucharski AJ, Funk S. Simulating respiratory disease transmission within and between classrooms to assess pandemic management strategies at schools. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2022;119(37):e2203019119. doi:10.1073/pnas.2203019119
8. Endo A, Uchida M, Hayashi N, Liu Y, Atkins KE, Kucharski AJ, Funk S. Within and between classroom transmission patterns of seasonal influenza among primary school students in Matsumoto city, Japan. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2021;118(46):e2112605118. doi:10.1073/pnas.2112605118