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Budget Analysis

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tessam30 edited this page Feb 28, 2019 · 15 revisions

Kenya Office of the Controller of Budget: Official pdf reports of budget summaries. Seems like the best place to start.

Kenya Understanding County Budgets: Kenya county budgets, tools for analyzing them, information about the Kenya county budget process, information about public participation at the county level in Kenya, IBP Kenya’s assessments of county budget transparency, and analysis of specific Kenya county budgets.

Kenya Tracking County Budgets: KENYA: HOW MUCH BUDGET INFORMATION ARE COUNTIES PUBLISHING ONLINE?

Kenya County Annual Development Plan: Kenya: 7 Key Questions About Your County Annual Development Plan

Open Budget Portal: Kenya Open Budget Portal Database

Kenya Budget Calendar: This budget map outlines key dates in Kenya’s National and County budget cycles from formulation to audit/oversight stages. In addition, it shows various budget documents that should be made available throughout the cycle.

National and County Health Budget Analysis: Ministry of Health Summary of 2016/17 Budget

Summary of 2017/18 Budget: Pro Poor Analysis: Kenya’s budget 2017/18 is an opportunity to address the country’s high levels of poverty and inequality.

Kenya Revenue Sharing Formula: Basis of Revenue Sharing among the Counties for FY 2016/17, 2017/18, 2018/19

Kenya Auditor General Report: Promoting Accountability in the Public Sector

County Integrated Development Plans: A County Integrated Development Plan is a super plan for the counties that gives an overall framework for development. It aims to co-ordinate the work of both levels of the government in a coherent plan to improve the quality of life for all the people and contribute towards devolution.

Potential Errors in Budget Data

Disclaimer: The findings, interpretation, and conclusions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government. All errors remain our own.

GeoCenter Scraped Budget Data Error Summary

CID budget_year County Budget_title budget_type Notes
13 2016 Tharaka Nithi Economic Growth, Commerce or Tourism Trade, Industry and Cooperative Development 1 absorption rate wrong
16 2017 Machakos Public Service Boards and Public Service Public Service, Labour and ICT Exp Rec seems quite high
20 2017 Kirinyaga Transport and Infrastructure Transport and Infrastructure Exq Dev 5189 to 518.9
20 2017 Kirinyaga Total TOTAL Exq Rec 38726 to 3872.6
27 2016 Uasin Gishu Health Health Services ASBA Dev changed to be 193 instead of 19.3
27 2017 Uasin Gishu Health Health Services Exq Rec is off by a decimal place
28 2014 Elgeyo Marakwet Public Service Boards and Public Service ICT and Public Service absorption rate looks off
29 2017 Nandi Education, Sports or Arts Education Research and Vocational Training 1 absorption rate wrong
42 2017 Kisumu Treasury, Finance or Administration City of Kisumu dev exp change from 708 to 70.8; ASBA also deflated by 10
42 2017 Kisumu Treasury, Finance or Administration Finance and Planning ASBA changed from 6570 to 657
42 2017 Kisumu Education, Sports or Arts Education, Youth, Gender, Culture &Sports ASBA changed from 3545 to 354.5
42 2017 Kisumu Agriculture Agriculture, Livestock & Fisheries Exp data changed from 517 to 51.13
42 2017 Kisumu Total TOTAL Expenditure totals are incorrect
43 2015 Homa Bay Treasury, Finance or Administration Finance & Economic Planning 1 - absorption rate likely wrong
  • Kisumu budget line items are wrong in nearly every column for 2017/18. Page 120 pdf (141 w/ reader).
  • Machakos has some abnormal values base on historical reporting for the 2017/18 data. Public Service Board seems odd given historical numbers. Page 151 pdf (172 w/ reader).
  • There are also many instances where commas were misplaced
  • Homa Bay 2015 Econ Growth (3) categories were off for nearly all development expenditures. Fixed in version two of data.
  • Machakos jumps to nearly 2 in 2016 for Transport and Infrastructure (4)
  • Tana River is very high in 2015 for Econ Growth (5); Tharaki Nithi also worth checking out
  • Kisumu and Nandi are high for Education in 2016, and 2017 respectively
  • Uasin Gishu shoots up in 2016 for Health (7); Should the 19.3 really be 193? ~ Numbers match if yes.
  • Kisumu Agriculture shoots up in 2017 (9) to nearly 4 --> see table Table 3.51 in the 2017/18 report pp 141/120
  • Embu in 2016 is odd at over 60; Table Table 3.18 was scraped incorrectly in 2016/17. Need to verify everything

GeoCenter Calculations Compared to Budget PDF Totals

CID budget_year Exp Dev County total_exp_dev diff
20 2017 722 Kirinyaga 752 -30
42 2017 669 Kisumu 688 -18.8
46 2017 528 Nyamira 529 -1.14
21 2017 2199 Murang'a 2196 3.1
28 2015 654 Elgeyo Marakwet 649 5.19
4 2017 919 Tana Rier 878 40.4
11 2017 1138 Isiolo 1009 129
8 2015 3534 Wajir 2566 968
  • Kisumu in 2017 should be 70.8 for City of Kisumu Development Expenditures - still off even after this
  • Tana River in 2017/18 is off due to a special program
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