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## Notes from Stark Lecture
-measure earthquake as a stochastic process using poisson process and memoryless
-properties to predice earthquakes estimate how big earthquakes are using moments
in physics earthquake probability is a metaphor claims that events occur as if
in a casino game, why not like terrorism instead?
-La quila earthquake in italy 2010
-Urn model is just an assumption, just because there is a rate that there is
a probability

-analogy of earthquake prediction to weather prediction obviously you would
predict differently based on past events like if it rains today, it is more
likely to rain tomorrow than it would in a summer. if an earthquake happens,
aftershocks will be more likely to happen

-assuming that something is random is a big assumption to make