Weather Forecast Joliet, IL

Dataset given by: EarthCam

Project done by: Nurgul Kurbanali kyzy

Table of Contents

• Project Overview
• Data Understanding
• Model Analysis
• Conclusion
• For More Information

Project Overview

The goal of this project was to analyze historical weather data and develop an ML model to predict the weather for Joliet, IL in 2024. The project involved data acquisition, data cleaning, exploratory data analysis, feature selection, model building, and evaluation.

Data Understanding

The initial dataset was composed of 7324 rows and 27 columns, offering a substantial amount of data for analysis. The dataset was thoroughly examined to comprehend its structure and the information it encompassed. Data cleaning techniques were employed to address missing values and inconsistencies. Through these measures, a cleaner dataset was obtained, forming the basis for subsequent analysis and modeling endeavors.

Model Analysis

A machine learning solution was developed using the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model. The model utilized day, month, and year as input features and predicted the temperature as the target variable. Model performance was evaluated using metrics such as mean squared error (MSE) and root mean squared error (RMSE).

Conclusion

Based on the results obtained, it is evident that the simple ARIMA model used in this project has limitations in accurately predicting the weather for Joliet, IL in 2024. Further enhancements and refinements are necessary to improve the model's performance. While ARIMA can provide a baseline, more advanced machine learning techniques offer better accuracy and can capture the complexity of weather patterns. Consideration should be given to incorporating additional variables, exploring more sophisticated modeling techniques, and leveraging advanced machine learning algorithms specifically designed for time series forecasting. In conclusion, this project serves as a starting point for future research and development in weather prediction for Joliet, IL. It highlights the need for more advanced modeling approaches and a deeper understanding of the underlying factors that influence weather patterns. By continually refining and expanding upon this work, more accurate and reliable weather predictions can be achieved.

For More Information

You can review my full analysis in my Jupyter Notebook or project presentation.

For any additional questions, please contact Nurgul Kurbanali kyzy at nurkamalova@gmail.com