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Curve Fitting for Future Risk:

In Machanical industry particular oil and gas offshore plants it's normal partise to inspect equipments/components risk. The risk includes human health, marine health and cost expenditure in case of failure. The risk is product of probablility of failure and consequence of failure; that are determined by current machine state.

The current state of machine is evovlued through petroleum standard; which determine replacement of equipments/compents. But the question of insterest is What will be the future risk of particular equipment/component? When it will require replacement? When it will become more hazardous to keep running these machines?

We have proposed a solution to determine Future Risk. That's build on Regression model. The typical idea is that normalized date to continous values and use it as independent variable of the equation and use respective values risk as dependant variable. We have used Quardatric form for Regression model.

The detail description with code can be seen at the link Proposed Solution

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Forecast Offshore machinery next date of RBI

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