All data is provided in the repo. Simply clone the repo, make sure you have renv downloaded, and restore().
require(renv)
renv::restore()From there you can open predicting_btc_halvening.Rmd and run.
Doing 500 simulations of bitcoin blocks made each day (trained over the 365 days before 2024-01-23), the most likely date is April 20th.
90.6% of the simulations had the Halving on April 19th (3rd), 20th (1st), or 21st (2nd).
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