A methodological framework to estimate future health impacts under climate change scenarios based on a defined set of assumptions and advanced statistical techniques developed in time-series analysis in environmental epidemiology. The proposed methodology is illustrated through a step-by-step hands-on tutorial structured in well-defined sections that cover the main methodological steps and essential elements:
Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Sera F, Armstrong B, Gasparrini A. A hands-on tutorial on a modelling framework for projections of climate change impacts on health. Epidemiology. 2019;30(3):321-329. DOI: 10.1097/EDE.0000000000000982. PMID: 30829832. [freely available here]
The material:
- 01EstimationERassociation.R, 02ProjExpHOutSeries.R, 03DownscalingCalibration.R, 04_05_06ExtCurveProjUncert.R, and 07DemChangesAdapt.R performs the various steps, consistently with the sections in the published article
- fhempel.r is an additional R function to perform the calibration step
- lndn_obs.csv, lndn_rcp4p5.csv, and lndn_rcp8p5.csv store the projection temperature data
- Codebook is a pdf file with the codebook for the datasets above (detailed explanation of all the variables)
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