Force Onshore Wind to South Germany #298

toniseibold · 2024-12-04T14:15:02Z

Problem

So far little to no onshore wind is built in the South of Germany. However, this does not represent the political targets.

Solution

By forcing more onshore wind in Germany while reducing the capacity per sqkm, onshore wind is pushed into the South of Germany. Different configs were tested:

160 GW - 1.5 cap_per_sqkm
total potential in Germany: 242.4 GW
total installed onshore capacity 161.249 GW
180 GW - 1.5 cap_per_sqkm
total potential in Germany: 242.4 GW
total installed onshore capacity 180 GW
115 GW - 1.25 cap_per_sqkm
total potential in Germany: 202.0 GW
total installed onshore capacity 130 GW

A Flächenziel for each bus region or different regions was investigated in a closed PR but did not lead to the desired behavior.

The config of a minimum target of 160 GW in the main and plus scenarios together with 1.4 cap_per_sqkm is chosen, since the 160 GW are a political target for 2040 and there is a installed capacity of > 20 GW in Southern Germany. A high resolution run for 2045 also shows a total installed capacity of 161 GW which means the minimum constraint is non binding.

Before asking for a review for this PR make sure to complete the following checklist:

Workflow with target rule ariadne_all completes without errors
The logic of export_ariadne_variables has been adapted to the changes
not applicable
One or several figures that validate the changes in the PR have been posted as a comment
A brief description of the changes has been added to Changelog.md
The latest main has been merged into the PR
The config has a new prefix of the format YYYYMMDDdescriptive_title

config/config.yaml

github-actions · 2024-12-04T17:36:52Z

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⚠️ Config changes detected!

Results may differ due to these changes:

diff --git a/config/config.yaml b/config/config.yaml
index 6be1748..ba21fb2 100644
--- a/config/config.yaml
+++ b/config/config.yaml
@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@
 
 # docs in https://pypsa-eur.readthedocs.io/en/latest/configuration.html#run
 run:
-  prefix: 20241203-fix-aviation
+  prefix: 20241203-force-onwind-south
   name:
   # - CurrentPolicies
   - KN2045_Bal_v4
@@ -103,7 +103,7 @@ atlite:
 
 renewable:
   onwind:
-    capacity_per_sqkm: 2
+    capacity_per_sqkm: 1.4
     cutout: europe-2019-sarah3-era5
     correction_factor: 0.95
     resource:
@@ -494,10 +494,10 @@ solving:
       Generator:
         onwind:
           DE:
-            2030: 99   # Wind-an-Land Law 2028
+            2030: 99    # Wind-an-Land Law 2028
             2035: 115   # Wind-an-Land Law 2030
-            2040: 115   # Wind-an-Land Law
-            2045: 115
+            2040: 157   # target 2035
+            2045: 160   # target 2040
         offwind:
           DE:
             2030: 22.5   # 75% Wind-auf-See Law

Ariadne Variables

Comparison

	NRMSE	Pearson
System Cost\|Capex\|Hydrogen\|Gas\|w/o CCS	0.811	0.637
Capacity\|Hydrogen\|Gas\|w/o CCS	0.811	0.637
System Cost\|Capex\|Hydrogen\|Gas\|w/ CCS	0.772	0.997
Capacity\|Hydrogen\|Gas\|w/ CCS	0.772	0.996
System Cost\|OPEX\|Electricity\|Hydro	0.573	0.659
Investment\|Energy Supply\|Hydrogen\|Gas\|w/ CCS	0.539	0.990
System Cost\|OPEX\|Electricity\|Storage Converter\|Hydro Dam Reservoir	0.473	-0.379
System Cost\|OPEX\|Electricity\|Storage Reservoir\|Hydro Dam Reservoir	0.473	-0.379
System Cost\|Capex\|Electricity\|Gas\|w/ CCS	0.450	0.280
Capacity\|Hydrogen\|Gas	0.437	1.000
System Cost\|Capex\|Electricity\|Hydrogen\|FC	0.436	0.052
System Cost\|Capex\|Electricity\|Hydrogen\|OC	0.431	-0.109
System Cost\|Capex\|Electricity\|Storage Reservoir	0.429	-0.088
System Cost\|Capex\|Electricity\|Storage Reservoir\|Stationary Batteries	0.429	-0.088
System Cost\|Capex\|Heat\|Biomass\|w/ CCS	0.427	-0.092
System Cost\|OPEX\|Electricity\|Hydrogen\|OC	0.427	-0.140
System Cost\|OPEX\|Heat\|Biomass\|w/ CCS	0.426	-0.084
Capacity\|Electricity\|Storage Converter	0.419	-0.417
System Cost\|Capex\|Gases\|Hydrogen	0.418	-0.275
System Cost\|OPEX\|Electricity\|Storage Converter\|Stationary Batteries	0.411	-0.367
Secondary Energy\|Electricity\|Hydro	0.411	-0.196
Capacity\|Electricity\|Gas\|OC	0.408	0.000
Price\|Secondary Energy\|Gases\|Hydrogen	0.405	0.000
System Cost\|OPEX\|Hydrogen\|Gas\|w/ CCS	0.397	0.976
Capacity Additions\|Hydrogen\|Gas\|w/ CCS	0.386	0.992
System Cost\|OPEX\|Electricity\|Storage Converter	0.361	0.434
System Cost\|OPEX\|Electricity\|Storage Reservoir	0.361	0.434
System Cost\|Capex\|Hydrogen\|Gas	0.336	1.000
Capacity Additions\|Electricity\|Wind\|Offshore	0.302	0.581
Investment\|Energy Supply\|Electricity\|Transmission\|AC\|Offshore	0.290	0.820
Capacity Additions\|Hydrogen\|Gas\|w/o CCS	0.283	0.785
Investment\|Energy Supply\|Electricity\|Wind Offshore	0.269	0.880
Investment\|Energy Supply\|Electricity\|Wind\|Offshore	0.269	0.880
Investment\|Energy Supply\|Liquids\|Biomass	0.260	1.000
Investment\|Energy Supply\|Electricity\|Transmission\|Offshore	0.252	0.893
Investment\|Energy Supply\|Electricity\|Transmission\|DC\|Offshore	0.249	0.904
Capacity Additions\|Electricity\|Wind\|Onshore	0.244	0.791
Secondary Energy\|Electricity\|Wind\|Offshore	0.243	0.976
System Cost\|OPEX\|Electricity\|Gas\|w/ CCS	0.238	0.789
System Cost\|Capex\|Electricity\|Wind\|Offshore	0.236	0.978
Capacity\|Electricity\|Wind\|Offshore	0.234	0.978
System Cost\|Capex\|Electricity\|Gas\|OC	0.215	0.837
Secondary Energy\|Electricity\|Wind\|Onshore	0.212	0.986
Investment\|Energy Supply\|Hydrogen\|Gas\|w/o CCS	0.200	0.900
Capacity\|Hydrogen	0.199	0.993
System Cost\|Capex\|Electricity\|Wind\|Onshore	0.195	0.985
Capacity\|Electricity\|Wind\|Onshore	0.191	0.985
Secondary Energy\|Hydrogen	0.191	0.928
Investment\|Energy Supply\|Electricity\|Wind Onshore	0.185	0.951
Investment\|Energy Supply\|Electricity\|Wind\|Onshore	0.185	0.951
System Cost\|OPEX\|Liquids\|Biomass	0.184	1.000
System Cost\|Capex\|Liquids\|Biomass	0.183	1.000
Capacity Additions\|Liquids\|Biomass	0.183	1.000
Capacity\|Liquids\|Biomass	0.183	1.000
Investment\|Energy Supply\|Electricity\|Transmission\|DC	0.178	0.922
System Cost\|OPEX\|Electricity\|Wind\|Offshore	0.175	0.995
Primary Energy\|Oil\|Electricity	0.173	0.917
Capacity Additions\|Electricity\|Solar\|PV\|Open Field	0.164	0.901
Investment\|Energy Supply\|Hydrogen\|Electrolysis	0.163	0.947
Investment\|Energy Supply\|Hydrogen\|Electricity	0.163	0.947
Secondary Energy\|Hydrogen\|Electricity	0.161	0.970
Secondary Energy Input\|Electricity\|Hydrogen	0.158	0.970
Capacity Additions\|Hydrogen\|Gas	0.156	0.939
Capacity\|Hydrogen\|Electricity	0.155	0.987
System Cost\|Capex\|Hydrogen	0.153	0.990
Capacity\|Electricity\|Transmission\|AC	0.146	0.997
Investment\|Energy Supply\|Heat\|Gas	0.145	0.940
System Cost\|Capex\|Hydrogen\|Electricity	0.143	0.988
Capacity Additions\|Hydrogen\|Electricity	0.142	0.951
System Cost\|OPEX\|Electricity\|Wind\|Onshore	0.139	0.997
Investment\|Energy Supply\|Electricity\|Transmission	0.134	0.965
Price\|Secondary Energy\|Gases\|Biomass	0.134	0.000
Emissions\|CO2\|Energy\|Supply\|Hydrogen	0.131	0.964
Emissions\|Gross Fossil CO2\|Energy\|Supply\|Hydrogen	0.131	0.964
Investment\|Energy Supply\|Electricity\|Solar\|PV\|Open Field	0.128	0.947
Capacity Additions\|Hydrogen	0.123	0.971
Investment\|Energy Supply\|Hydrogen\|Transmission and Distribution\|Endogen\|New-build	0.121	0.996
System Cost\|OPEX\|Hydrogen	0.120	0.976
Capacity Additions\|Heat\|Processes	0.118	0.978
Capacity Additions\|Heat\|Gas	0.116	0.962
Trade\|Secondary Energy\|Electricity\|Volume	0.116	0.994
Capacity Additions\|Electricity\|Wind	0.115	0.964
Investment\|Energy Supply\|Electricity\|Biomass\|Solids	0.111	0.977
Investment\|Energy Supply\|Electricity\|Biomass	0.111	0.977
Investment\|Energy Supply\|Electricity\|Biomass\|w/o CCS	0.111	0.977
System Cost\|OPEX\|Hydrogen\|Electricity	0.109	0.996
System Cost\|Capex\|Heat\|Processes	0.107	0.996
Secondary Energy\|Electricity\|Curtailment	0.104	0.993
Capacity\|Heat\|Processes	0.102	0.997

NRMSE: Normalized (combined-min-max) Root Mean Square Error
Pearson: Pearson correlation coefficient
Threshold: NRMSE > 0.1
Only variables reaching the threshold are shown. Find the equivalent plot for all of them below.

Plots

Main branch	Feature branch

⚠️ Note: Only the first 20 variables are shown, but more are above the threshold. Find all of them in the artifacts.

General

Plots comparison

Main branch	Feature branch

Files comparison

	Status	NRMSE	MAE (norm)
csvs/prices.csv	⚠️Changed	0.003	0.09
csvs/curtailment.csv	⚠️Changed	0.000	0.20
csvs/price_statistics.csv	⚠️Changed	0.016	0.24
csvs/cumulative_cost.csv	⚠️Changed	0.000	0.09
csvs/metrics.csv	⚠️Changed	0.001	0.08
csvs/nodal_cfs.csv	✅ Almost equal	0.027	0.00
csvs/supply.csv	✅ Almost equal	0.002	0.01
csvs/nodal_supply_energy.csv	✅ Almost equal	0.000	0.00
csvs/capacities.csv	✅ Almost equal	0.000	0.00
csvs/nodal_costs.csv	✅ Almost equal	0.001	0.00
csvs/market_values.csv	✅ Almost equal	0.056	0.02
csvs/nodal_capacities.csv	✅ Almost equal	0.000	0.00
csvs/cfs.csv	✅ Almost equal	0.040	0.00
csvs/costs.csv	✅ Almost equal	0.004	0.01
csvs/supply_energy.csv	✅ Almost equal	0.001	0.01
csvs/energy.csv	✅ Almost equal	0.002	0.01
csvs/weighted_prices.csv	✅ Equal

NRMSE: Normalized (combined-min-max) Root Mean Square Error
MAE (norm): Mean Absolute Error on normalized data (min-max)
Status Threshold: MAE (norm) > 0.05 and NRMSE > 0.3

Model Metrics

Benchmarks

Comparing force_onwind_south (62efdb5) with main (8b696f9).
Branch is 7 commits ahead and 0 commits behind.
Last updated on 2024-12-05 11:56:25 CET.

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forcing onshore wind to South Germany

d5768f0

toniseibold marked this pull request as ready for review December 4, 2024 14:33

toniseibold requested a review from lindnemi December 4, 2024 14:33

reduce capacity_per_sqkm 1.4

b20d3e0

lindnemi reviewed Dec 4, 2024

View reviewed changes

config/config.yaml Show resolved Hide resolved

toniseibold and others added 5 commits December 5, 2024 10:23

minimum onshore wind capacity for Germany following political targets

55d5ec0

Merge branch 'main' into force_onwind_south

cbf6b6b

[pre-commit.ci] auto fixes from pre-commit.com hooks

dcc8e64

for more information, see https://pre-commit.ci

For onwind capacity follow main scenarios in SupplyFocus

058e30a

Revert back to old trajectory for Supply Focus

62efdb5

lindnemi merged commit 32dadd8 into main Dec 5, 2024
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Force Onshore Wind to South Germany #298

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