Adjusting Aviation Demand and Emission Accounting

[toniseibold]

This PR

• changes the source model for the aviation demand
• accounts only the domestic aviation in the national co2 target

Since the development of the aviation fuel demand in Remind seems implausible, the aviation demand factor is now calculated from the Aladin model.
Furthermore, only the domestic aviation demand is accounted to the national climate target. This is implemented by not relaxing the national emissions target in build_scenarios and in additional_functionality only accounting for the domestic aviation.
The share of domestic aviation can be obtained from multiple sources (all shares for 2019)

• manually JRC/IDEES: 7 %
• energy_totals.csv: 8.5 %
• Aladin: 7.4 % (no numbers for 2019 taking 2020 numbers)

Changes (before/after)
national CO2 targets (old) new
2020: (0.699) 0.671
2025: (0.552) 0.524
2030: (0.355) 0.348
2035: (0.218) 0.216
2040: (0.09) 0.09
2045: (-0.05) -0.05
2050: (-0.048) -0.048

Before asking for a review for this PR make sure to complete the following checklist:

• Workflow with target rule ariadne_all completes without errors
• The logic of export_ariadne_variables has been adapted to the changes
  not applicable
• One or several figures that validate the changes in the PR have been posted as a comment
• A brief description of the changes has been added to Changelog.md
• The latest main has been merged into the PR
• The config has a new prefix of the format YYYYMMDDdescriptive_title

[github-actions]

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Ariadne Variables

Comparison

	NRMSE	Pearson
System Cost|OPEX|Electricity|Hydro	0.611	-0.833
Price|Secondary Energy|Gases|Hydrogen	0.396	0.000
Capacity|Electricity|Storage Converter	0.388	0.153
System Cost|Capex|Gases|Hydrogen	0.386	0.217
System Cost|OPEX|Electricity|Storage Converter|Stationary Batteries	0.385	0.221
System Cost|Capex|Electricity|Storage Reservoir|Stationary Batteries	0.385	0.298
System Cost|Capex|Electricity|Storage Reservoir	0.385	0.298
System Cost|Capex|Electricity|Gas|OC	0.384	0.818
System Cost|Capex|Electricity|Hydrogen|FC	0.384	0.426
System Cost|Capex|Heat|Biomass|w/ CCS	0.383	0.314
System Cost|OPEX|Gases|Hydrogen	0.383	0.218
System Cost|OPEX|Heat|Biomass|w/ CCS	0.383	0.315
System Cost|Capex|Electricity|Gas|w/ CCS	0.382	0.600
System Cost|OPEX|Electricity|Hydrogen|FC	0.381	0.628
System Cost|OPEX|Electricity|Gas|w/ CCS	0.381	0.894
Secondary Energy Input|Hydrogen|Gases	0.379	0.274
Capacity|Electricity|Gas|OC	0.373	0.996
System Cost|Capex|Electricity|Hydrogen|OC	0.350	0.759
System Cost|OPEX|Electricity|Hydrogen|OC	0.317	0.764
System Cost|OPEX|Electricity|Storage Converter|Hydro Dam Reservoir	0.263	0.535
System Cost|OPEX|Electricity|Storage Reservoir|Hydro Dam Reservoir	0.263	0.535
Price|Secondary Energy|Gases|Biomass	0.148	0.000
System Cost|OPEX|Electricity|Storage Converter	0.138	0.926
System Cost|OPEX|Electricity|Storage Reservoir	0.138	0.926

NRMSE: Normalized (combined-min-max) Root Mean Square Error
Pearson: Pearson correlation coefficient
Threshold: NRMSE > 0.1
Only variables reaching the threshold are shown. Find the equivalent plot for all of them below.

Plots

Main branch	Feature branch

⚠️ Note: Only the first 20 variables are shown, but more are above the threshold. Find all of them in the artifacts.

General

Plots comparison

Main branch	Feature branch

Files comparison

	Status	NRMSE	MAE (norm)
csvs/metrics.csv	⚠️Changed	0.000	0.06
csvs/curtailment.csv	⚠️Changed	0.000	0.10
csvs/price_statistics.csv	⚠️Changed	0.001	0.12
csvs/cumulative_cost.csv	⚠️Changed	0.000	0.09
csvs/nodal_cfs.csv	✅ Almost equal	0.027	0.00
csvs/supply.csv	✅ Almost equal	0.001	0.00
csvs/prices.csv	✅ Almost equal	0.001	0.01
csvs/nodal_supply_energy.csv	✅ Almost equal	0.000	0.00
csvs/capacities.csv	✅ Almost equal	0.000	0.00
csvs/nodal_costs.csv	✅ Almost equal	0.000	0.00
csvs/market_values.csv	✅ Almost equal	0.007	0.04
csvs/nodal_capacities.csv	✅ Almost equal	0.000	0.00
csvs/cfs.csv	✅ Almost equal	0.040	0.00
csvs/costs.csv	✅ Almost equal	0.000	0.01
csvs/supply_energy.csv	✅ Almost equal	0.000	0.03
csvs/energy.csv	✅ Almost equal	0.000	0.01
csvs/weighted_prices.csv	✅ Equal

NRMSE: Normalized (combined-min-max) Root Mean Square Error
MAE (norm): Mean Absolute Error on normalized data (min-max)
Status Threshold: MAE (norm) > 0.05 and NRMSE > 0.3

Model Metrics

Benchmarks

Comparing fix_aviation (57464e7) with main (8b696f9).
Branch is 8 commits ahead and 1 commits behind.
Last updated on 2024-12-04 20:15:44 CET.

[lindnemi]

Good work and results looks much better now.

Just 1 minor point: The domestic_factor should not be read from config, but computed from energy_totals, e.g.:

(energy_totals["total domestic aviation"] / (
        energy_totals["total domestic aviation"]
        + energy_totals["total international aviation"]
    )).get("DE")

[lindnemi]

by switching to ALADIN we no longer have to use the fallback_reference_scenario for the aviation growth, because they already uploaded all data