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+## Notes from Stark Lecture
+-measure earthquake as a stochastic process using poisson process and memoryless
+-properties to predice earthquakes estimate how big earthquakes are using moments
+in physics earthquake probability is a metaphor claims that events occur as if
+in a casino game, why not like terrorism instead? 
+-La quila earthquake in italy 2010 
+-Urn model is just an assumption, just because there is a rate that there is
+a probability
+
+-analogy of earthquake prediction to weather prediction obviously you would
+predict differently based on past events like if it rains today, it is more
+likely to rain tomorrow than it would in a summer. if an earthquake happens,
+aftershocks will be more likely to happen
+
+-assuming that something is random is a big assumption to make