add support for permissionless prediction markets

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All DeFi enthusiasts often find themselves contemplating the potentials of permissionless prediction markets.

Background:

Permissionless prediction markets are a dream for many due to their decentralized and open nature. However, sourcing liquidity is a significant challenge. The drift model stands out as it makes sourcing liquidity relatively inexpensive. In traditional models, a market maker bears transaction fees and the risk of quoting a dead market. The drift model allows for listening for taker flow and fulfilling at runtime, with all intents kept on-chain, mitigating unnecessary costs and risks.

Call to Action:

This is a call to contributors who are looking to make high-impact contributions or PRs to enhance the functionality and efficiency of permissionless prediction markets.

Proposed Steps:

1. Expand Oracle Sources:

   • An oracle can be any on-chain readable or derived data.
   • Switchboard permits users to create custom oracles using verified scripts, albeit with inherent risks.
   • For instance, it could read a spot market midpoint for the latest token.

2. Support Arbitrary Oracle Market Creation:

   • Assist in creating a market with an arbitrary oracle.
   • Potentially seed the market/fee pool for fillers.
   • With the right parameter defaults, this doesn’t compromise the speed or add unnecessary risk to the rest of the protocol.

3. Integrate Support for Futures Expiry Type:

   • Since prediction markets expire, integrating support for futures expiry type is crucial, in addition to perpetual markets.
   • This integration should be seamless and not overly complex.

4. Optimize Margining and Risk System:

   • Given that a YES prediction price is bounded between 0 and 1, it is vital to incorporate this into the margining and risk system.
   • The vAMM could be optimized to handle this range even better, considering the spread, skew, and intensity of orders to ensure solvent settlement after fees.
   • A thorough examination of these factors is crucial to avoid winners taking a haircut at settlement.

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non-permissionless prediction market creation support via: #1152

1. 'prelaunch' oracle source was essentially ability to support (program: start drift oracle #910)
2. using 'prelaunch' oracle type is essentially arbitrary work around for margin/pnl settlement system
3. currently requires same logic as delisting after oracle update to binary outcome
4. Margin/Risk system support for range bounded prediction market to cover worst case loss is complete in PR above. before enabling, vamm could be optimized much further but currently quotes wide using prelaunch oracle confidence expansion (when no external liquidity present) and also enforces .05 lowest ask and .95 highest bid.