Uncertainty about LP3: 1.4.3 vs 2.0

[rnugent3]

The distribution of flows for a given frequency is different between FDA 1 and FDA 2.

Mean: 3.3 Standard Deviation: 0.254 Skew: -0.1021 ERL: 48

Mean	Standard Deviation	Skew	ERL	Event AEP	Percentile of Event Flows	Expected Percentile	Actual Percentile	Relative Difference
3.3	0.254	-0.1021	48	0.005	0.05	6648	5713.7921189621	-0.140524651178987
3.3	0.254	-0.1021	48	0.005	0.25	7628	7255.75640467638	-0.0487996323182511
3.3	0.254	-0.1021	48	0.005	0.75	9627	10155.1314046764	0.0548593959360528
3.3	0.254	-0.1021	48	0.005	0.95	11870	13257.0064046764	0.116849739231372
3.3	0.254	-0.1021	48	0.02	0.05	5187	4733.19985150962	-0.0874879792732553
3.3	0.254	-0.1021	48	0.02	0.25	5845	5610.49151817629	-0.040121211603714
3.3	0.254	-0.1021	48	0.02	0.75	7135	7092.7534229382	-0.00592103392597121
3.3	0.254	-0.1021	48	0.02	0.95	8520	8435.82485150962	-0.00987971226412866
3.3	0.254	-0.1021	48	0.01	0.05	5910	5233.21450737217	-0.114515311781359
3.3	0.254	-0.1021	48	0.01	0.25	6722	6390.15895181662	-0.0493664159749159
3.3	0.254	-0.1021	48	0.01	0.75	8348	8441.54784070551	0.0112060182924659
3.3	0.254	-0.1021	48	0.01	0.95	10135	10456.5478407055	0.031726476635965
3.3	0.254	-0.1021	48	0.1	0.05	3540	3437.2544787694	-0.0290241585397185
3.3	0.254	-0.1021	48	0.1	0.25	3896	3829.77828829321	-0.0169973592676577
3.3	0.254	-0.1021	48	0.1	0.75	4547	4454.8484637318	-0.0202664473868919
3.3	0.254	-0.1021	48	0.1	0.95	5192	4968.11162162654	-0.0431217986081396
3.3	0.254	-0.1021	48	0.05	0.05	4248	4036.3907370694	-0.0498138566220813
3.3	0.254	-0.1021	48	0.05	0.25	4725	4607.98048065914	-0.0247660358393349
3.3	0.254	-0.1021	48	0.05	0.75	5626	5527.54458322325	-0.0175000740804754
3.3	0.254	-0.1021	48	0.05	0.95	6557	6320.31381399248	-0.0360967189274858
3.3	0.254	-0.1021	48	0.002	0.05	7651	6046.8077450183	-0.20967092602035
3.3	0.254	-0.1021	48	0.002	0.25	8876	7828.47441168497	-0.118017754429364
3.3	0.254	-0.1021	48	0.002	0.75	11426	11367.0458402564	-0.00515964989879239
3.3	0.254	-0.1021	48	0.002	0.95	14357	15293.474411685	0.0652277224827588

Mean: 2.898 Standard Deviation: 0.324 Skew: -.539 ERL: 16

Mean	Standard Deviation	Skew	ERL	Event AEP	Percentile of Event Flows	Expected Percentile	Actual Percentile	Relative Difference
2.898	0.324	-0.539	16	0.05	0.05	1635	1514.43368357102	-0.0737408663174203
2.898	0.324	-0.539	16	0.05	0.25	2009	1938.04872245185	-0.0353167135630436
2.898	0.324	-0.539	16	0.05	0.75	2921	2668.06786121754	-0.086590941041581
2.898	0.324	-0.539	16	0.05	0.95	4318	3298.86814462531	-0.236019419957085
2.898	0.324	-0.539	16	0.1	0.05	1376	1303.12076911859	-0.0529645573266059
2.898	0.324	-0.539	16	0.1	0.25	1669	1610.67294743673	-0.0349473053105297
2.898	0.324	-0.539	16	0.1	0.75	2343	2133.78547211319	-0.089293439132228
2.898	0.324	-0.539	16	0.1	0.95	3306	2572.93256883848	-0.22173848492484
2.898	0.324	-0.539	16	0.002	0.05	2618	1932.88863215712	-0.261692653874286
2.898	0.324	-0.539	16	0.002	0.25	3376	2942.92294805402	-0.128281117282578
2.898	0.324	-0.539	16	0.002	0.75	5502	5604.18338521098	0.0185720438406002
2.898	0.324	-0.539	16	0.002	0.95	9383	8931.21822792505	-0.0481489685681502

Mean: 5.943 Standard Deviation: .103 Skew: .045 ERL: 62

Mean	Standard Deviation	Skew	ERL	Event AEP	Percentile of Event Flows	Expected Percentile	Actual Percentile	Relative Difference
5.943	0.103	0.045	62	0.002	0.05	1588715	1439006.56088558	-0.0942324073949224
5.943	0.103	0.045	62	0.002	0.25	1681514	1592101.35405891	-0.0531738932539874
5.943	0.103	0.045	62	0.002	0.75	1848145	1844482.64514345	-0.00198163826785613
5.943	0.103	0.045	62	0.002	0.95	2008312	2072025.88576649	0.0317250933950951
5.943	0.103	0.045	62	0.05	0.05	1212505	1172877.94260523	-0.0326819744205364
5.943	0.103	0.045	62	0.05	0.25	1260829	1244376.6959485	-0.0130487988866856
5.943	0.103	0.045	62	0.05	0.75	1342924	1344321.06230849	0.00104031375452876
5.943	0.103	0.045	62	0.05	0.95	1417390	1422241.81375384	0.00342306193343828
5.943	0.103	0.045	62	0.1	0.05	1118936	1090210.31662423	-0.025672320289785
5.943	0.103	0.045	62	0.1	0.25	1158689	1143852.41306499	-0.0128046325933939
5.943	0.103	0.045	62	0.1	0.75	1224539	1228467.89895004	0.00320847188210239
5.943	0.103	0.045	62	0.1	0.95	1282778	1278071.72357909	-0.00366881597666297

Conclusion

I stopped working on this discussion to do a comprehensive comparison between 2.0 and SSP EMA/17C, which I consider the source of truth. I'll reach back to this one depending on the results of the comparison between 2.0 and SSP.

Images of FDA 1.4.3 Flow Frequency with Uncertainty